Brazil_state Results

combine estimates

Stacking Estimate (95% CI) SC Estimate (95% CI) Time trend Estimate (95% CI) Time trend (no offset) Estimate (95% CI) STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
09_1_11 0.94 (0.58, 1.85) 0.78 (0.56, 1.07) 0.8 (0.53, 1.16) 1.34 (0.87, 2.01) 0.82 (0.54, 1.25)
09_1_12 0.8 (0.47, 1.45) 0.59 (0.45, 0.84) 1.18 (0.77, 1.77) 1.01 (0.65, 1.54) 0.56 (0.45, 0.69)
09_1_13 1.06 (0.71, 1.62) 1.18 (0.82, 1.92) 1.18 (0.8, 1.74) 1 (0.68, 1.42) 1.07 (0.82, 1.35)
09_1_14 0.91 (0.57, 1.4) 1.22 (0.88, 1.69) 0.91 (0.58, 1.39) 0.52 (0.35, 0.74) 1.51 (1.21, 1.86)
09_1_15 0.67 (0.6, 0.84) 0.67 (0.6, 0.79) 0.82 (0.67, 1.02) 0.76 (0.62, 0.91) 0.73 (0.62, 0.85)
09_1_16 1.13 (0.89, 1.83) 1.23 (0.97, 1.5) 1 (0.69, 1.43) 1.56 (1.11, 2.14) 1.1 (0.89, 1.36)
09_1_17 0.42 (0.29, 0.67) 0.56 (0.37, 0.84) 0.4 (0.29, 0.54) 0.58 (0.45, 0.77) 0.42 (0.29, 0.61)
09_2_21 0.69 (0.44, 1.1) 0.76 (0.66, 1.18) 0.59 (0.42, 0.78) 0.74 (0.57, 0.96) 0.73 (0.59, 0.89)
09_2_22 0.64 (0.43, 0.9) 0.7 (0.45, 0.94) 0.59 (0.42, 0.8) 0.69 (0.52, 0.88) 0.57 (0.39, 0.79)
09_2_23 0.56 (0.45, 0.7) 0.66 (0.57, 0.75) 0.55 (0.43, 0.7) 0.61 (0.48, 0.76) 0.56 (0.45, 0.68)
09_2_24 0.66 (0.55, 0.84) 0.59 (0.51, 0.7) 0.56 (0.43, 0.72) 0.7 (0.54, 0.89) 0.65 (0.56, 0.76)
09_2_25 0.64 (0.45, 0.87) 0.73 (0.52, 0.89) 0.53 (0.42, 0.68) 0.63 (0.52, 0.76) 0.64 (0.53, 0.76)
09_2_26 0.65 (0.51, 0.82) 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) 0.48 (0.35, 0.66) 0.65 (0.47, 0.88) 0.64 (0.48, 0.84)
09_2_27 0.54 (0.38, 0.89) 0.72 (0.58, 0.84) 0.49 (0.37, 0.67) 0.74 (0.56, 0.95) 0.68 (0.47, 0.95)
09_2_28 0.8 (0.33, 1.16) 0.64 (0.46, 0.92) 0.39 (0.28, 0.52) 0.86 (0.63, 1.17) 0.67 (0.38, 1.22)
09_2_29 0.57 (0.51, 0.89) 0.56 (0.51, 0.63) 0.65 (0.58, 0.74) 0.84 (0.74, 0.95) 0.78 (0.71, 0.87)
09_3_31 0.54 (0.46, 0.72) 0.53 (0.46, 0.65) 0.65 (0.53, 0.79) 0.85 (0.69, 1.03) 0.66 (0.59, 0.74)
09_3_32 0.46 (0.39, 0.53) 0.46 (0.39, 0.53) 0.48 (0.36, 0.62) 0.68 (0.52, 0.88) 0.43 (0.31, 0.61)
09_3_33 0.74 (0.64, 0.84) 0.74 (0.64, 0.84) 0.52 (0.41, 0.65) 0.62 (0.51, 0.77) 0.62 (0.51, 0.74)
09_3_35 0.93 (0.83, 1.04) 0.93 (0.83, 1.03) 0.95 (0.78, 1.15) 1.04 (0.87, 1.26) 0.98 (0.84, 1.2)
09_4_41 0.99 (0.67, 1.24) 0.85 (0.65, 1.02) 0.91 (0.75, 1.1) 1.06 (0.89, 1.28) 1.07 (0.91, 1.27)
09_4_42 0.79 (0.59, 1.09) 0.7 (0.59, 0.84) 0.92 (0.76, 1.12) 1.17 (0.98, 1.41) 0.62 (0.4, 0.92)
09_4_43 0.89 (0.77, 1.26) 0.83 (0.75, 0.93) 1.01 (0.86, 1.19) 1.13 (0.96, 1.33) 0.9 (0.81, 0.99)
09_5_50 0.76 (0.42, 0.89) 0.77 (0.68, 0.89) 0.69 (0.52, 0.91) 0.98 (0.74, 1.3) 0.49 (0.36, 0.65)
09_5_51 0.73 (0.61, 0.87) 0.72 (0.61, 0.8) 0.77 (0.6, 0.98) 0.97 (0.78, 1.23) 0.8 (0.68, 0.92)
09_5_52 0.58 (0.5, 0.73) 0.58 (0.5, 0.68) 0.8 (0.56, 1.08) 1.02 (0.76, 1.38) 0.88 (0.66, 1.17)
09_5_53 0.47 (0.37, 0.94) 0.44 (0.37, 0.58) 0.74 (0.51, 1.04) 0.86 (0.6, 1.17) 0.81 (0.58, 1.16)
09_1_AA 0.89 (0.78, 1.02) 0.9 (0.78, 1.01) 0.86 (0.73, 1.03) 0.89 (0.75, 1.03) 0.89 (0.78, 1.02)
09_2_AA 0.58 (0.52, 0.78) 0.58 (0.53, 0.63) 0.58 (0.48, 0.7) 0.74 (0.63, 0.86) 0.73 (0.65, 0.82)
09_3_AA 0.78 (0.71, 0.94) 0.78 (0.71, 0.91) 0.8 (0.68, 0.94) 0.86 (0.71, 1.08) 0.87 (0.71, 1.02)
09_4_AA 1 (0.87, 1.2) 0.76 (0.68, 0.85) 0.96 (0.83, 1.11) 1.1 (0.96, 1.27) 1 (0.9, 1.1)
09_5_AA 0.67 (0.55, 0.77) 0.67 (0.55, 0.77) 0.77 (0.58, 1) 0.99 (0.79, 1.25) 0.86 (0.7, 1.02)
09_A_AA 0.75 (0.69, 0.81) 0.75 (0.71, 0.8) 0.74 (0.65, 0.84) 0.88 (0.79, 0.97) 0.84 (0.74, 0.93)

Plot of Rate ratios, with size proportional to cross validation weights

Weights for each of the models from cross validation

groups Synthetic Controls Time trend Time trend (no offset) STL+PCA
09_1_11 0.546 0.000 0.454 0.000
09_1_12 0.026 0.000 0.602 0.373
09_1_13 0.000 0.396 0.604 0.000
09_1_14 0.000 0.995 0.005 0.000
09_1_15 0.946 0.054 0.000 0.000
09_1_16 0.001 0.000 0.152 0.847
09_1_17 0.059 0.164 0.000 0.777
09_2_21 0.466 0.534 0.000 0.000
09_2_22 0.435 0.565 0.000 0.000
09_2_23 0.067 0.000 0.047 0.885
09_2_24 0.000 0.000 0.401 0.599
09_2_25 0.400 0.213 0.000 0.388
09_2_26 0.875 0.021 0.104 0.000
09_2_27 0.000 0.662 0.338 0.000
09_2_28 0.000 0.169 0.709 0.122
09_2_29 0.852 0.000 0.148 0.000
09_3_31 0.841 0.158 0.000 0.000
09_3_32 0.970 0.000 0.000 0.030
09_3_33 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
09_3_35 0.917 0.082 0.000 0.000
09_4_41 0.434 0.000 0.000 0.565
09_4_42 0.511 0.447 0.000 0.042
09_4_43 0.454 0.000 0.270 0.276
09_5_50 0.829 0.000 0.000 0.171
09_5_51 0.805 0.000 0.000 0.195
09_5_52 0.977 0.000 0.023 0.000
09_5_53 0.712 0.288 0.000 0.000
09_1_AA 0.541 0.028 0.000 0.431
09_2_AA 0.648 0.257 0.095 0.000
09_3_AA 0.900 0.000 0.100 0.000
09_4_AA 0.000 0.268 0.253 0.479
09_5_AA 0.999 0.000 0.001 0.000
09_A_AA 0.854 0.146 0.000 0.000

Inclusion Probabilities

Group Greatest Inclusion Variable Greatest Inclusion Probability Second Greatest Inclusion Variable Second Greatest Inclusion Probability Third Greatest Inclusion Variable Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
09_1_11 cj20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.9831379 P00_99 0.9371156
09_1_12 cj20_J22 0.7151058 ach_noj 0.5224085 P00_99 0.2782983
09_1_13 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.6063335 K00_99 0.2905388 L00_99 0.2417225
09_1_14 ach_noj 0.9999999 P00_99 0.7322337 P05_07 0.2035569
09_1_15 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E40_46 0.3214585 A41 0.0683521
09_1_16 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.3327322 ach_noj 0.3022072 P00_99 0.1725273
09_1_17 P00_99 0.6798119 ach_noj 0.1393054 N00_99 0.0542023
09_2_21 cj20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.8337695 K00_99 0.8168121
09_2_22 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P05_07 0.9174699 P00_99 0.6557535
09_2_23 cj20_J22 0.9630094 P00_99 0.5234013 N00_99 0.2780291
09_2_24 ach_noj 0.4144045 L00_99 0.1829817 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.1640923
09_2_25 cj20_J22 0.9426841 E00_99 0.6342971 P00_99 0.4784015
09_2_26 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.4050381 P05_07 0.2224385
09_2_27 P00_99 0.0592301 P05_07 0.0537290 E40_46 0.0493017
09_2_28 cj20_J22 0.6659361 P00_99 0.5719235 ach_noj 0.5312482
09_2_29 P00_99 1.0000000 E00_99 0.2614157 E40_46 0.1687861
09_3_31 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.7273262 P00_99 0.5119019
09_3_32 cj20_J22 1.0000000 N00_99 0.1711027 P00_99 0.0749063
09_3_33 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9842016 Z00_99 0.1065527
09_3_35 cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 1.0000000 D50_89 0.9007549
09_4_41 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.7965920 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.7191503
09_4_42 cj20_J22 0.9999483 ach_noj 0.7602244 E00_99 0.3542502
09_4_43 cj20_J22 0.9979120 E00_99 0.9598723 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.1659049
09_5_50 cj20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.8633852 P05_07 0.2373068
09_5_51 cj20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.7268802 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.2794839
09_5_52 cj20_J22 1.0000000 ach_noj 0.9042395 K00_99 0.1224885
09_5_53 cj20_J22 1.0000000 a10_b99_nopneumo 0.6527259 A41 0.1911580
09_1_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 P00_99 0.8101210 N39 0.3075446
09_2_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 A41 1.0000000 K00_99 0.1025256
09_3_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 0.9290957 E40_46 0.6447456
09_4_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 E00_99 1.0000000 I00_99 0.0546357
09_5_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 K00_99 0.7419362 ach_noj 0.2742751
09_A_AA cj20_J22 1.0000000 E40_46 1.0000000 I00_99 0.0617979

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 1 Inclusion Probability of Control 1 Control 1 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 2 Inclusion Probability of Control 2 Control 2 Estimate (95% CI) Top Control 3 Inclusion Probability of Control 3 Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
09_1_11 0.78 (0.56, 1.07) cj20_J22 1 0.8 (0.49, 1.11) ach_noj 0.98 0.89 (0.6, 1.14) P00_99 0.94 0.89 (0.63, 1.16)
09_1_12 0.59 (0.45, 0.84) cj20_J22 0.72 0.57 (0.44, 0.74) ach_noj 0.52 0.56 (0.43, 0.72) P00_99 0.28 0.56 (0.43, 0.7)
09_1_13 1.18 (0.82, 1.92) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.61 1.04 (0.78, 1.43) K00_99 0.29 1.12 (0.79, 1.41) L00_99 0.24 1.09 (0.77, 1.4)
09_1_14 1.22 (0.88, 1.69) ach_noj 1 1.14 (0.74, 1.64) P00_99 0.73 1.95 (1.39, 2.62) P05_07 0.2 1.94 (1.36, 2.63)
09_1_15 0.67 (0.6, 0.79) cj20_J22 1 0.69 (0.62, 0.76) E40_46 0.32 0.69 (0.62, 0.76) A41 0.07 0.69 (0.62, 0.76)
09_1_16 1.23 (0.97, 1.5) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.33 1.2 (0.95, 1.47) ach_noj 0.3 1.23 (0.95, 1.5) P00_99 0.17 1.25 (1.02, 1.51)
09_1_17 0.56 (0.37, 0.84) P00_99 0.68 0.75 (0.62, 0.88) ach_noj 0.14 0.75 (0.62, 0.88) N00_99 0.05 0.76 (0.64, 0.88)
09_2_21 0.76 (0.66, 1.18) cj20_J22 1 0.8 (0.65, 0.95) ach_noj 0.83 0.79 (0.65, 0.93) K00_99 0.82 0.8 (0.67, 0.95)
09_2_22 0.7 (0.45, 0.94) cj20_J22 1 0.43 (0.36, 0.66) P05_07 0.92 0.43 (0.36, 0.5) P00_99 0.66 0.42 (0.36, 0.5)
09_2_23 0.66 (0.57, 0.75) cj20_J22 0.96 0.68 (0.58, 0.78) P00_99 0.52 0.67 (0.56, 0.77) N00_99 0.28 0.66 (0.56, 0.78)
09_2_24 0.59 (0.51, 0.7) ach_noj 0.41 0.58 (0.5, 0.68) L00_99 0.18 0.58 (0.5, 0.67) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.16 0.58 (0.5, 0.66)
09_2_25 0.73 (0.52, 0.89) cj20_J22 0.94 0.8 (0.7, 0.9) E00_99 0.63 0.8 (0.69, 0.9) P00_99 0.48 0.81 (0.72, 0.91)
09_2_26 0.66 (0.54, 0.81) cj20_J22 1 0.94 (0.67, 1.23) P00_99 0.41 0.94 (0.52, 1.23) P05_07 0.22 0.98 (0.67, 1.22)
09_2_27 0.72 (0.58, 0.84) P00_99 0.06 0.73 (0.59, 0.85) P05_07 0.05 0.73 (0.58, 0.87) E40_46 0.05 0.73 (0.6, 0.86)
09_2_28 0.64 (0.46, 0.92) cj20_J22 0.67 0.61 (0.47, 0.88) P00_99 0.57 0.6 (0.46, 0.78) ach_noj 0.53 0.61 (0.5, 0.78)
09_2_29 0.56 (0.51, 0.63) P00_99 1 0.68 (0.57, 0.76) E00_99 0.26 0.65 (0.56, 0.75) E40_46 0.17 0.66 (0.56, 0.76)
09_3_31 0.53 (0.46, 0.65) cj20_J22 1 0.65 (0.53, 0.77) E00_99 0.73 0.6 (0.51, 0.79) P00_99 0.51 0.57 (0.49, 0.66)
09_3_32 0.46 (0.39, 0.53) cj20_J22 1 0.66 (0.45, 0.87) N00_99 0.17 0.64 (0.46, 0.85) P00_99 0.07 0.77 (0.63, 0.89)
09_3_33 0.74 (0.64, 0.84) cj20_J22 1 0.68 (0.58, 0.8) E00_99 0.98 0.69 (0.57, 0.82) Z00_99 0.11 0.69 (0.58, 0.78)
09_3_35 0.93 (0.83, 1.03) cj20_J22 1 0.96 (0.78, 1.16) E00_99 1 0.97 (0.81, 1.13) D50_89 0.9 0.9 (0.66, 1.13)
09_4_41 0.85 (0.65, 1.02) cj20_J22 1 0.8 (0.72, 0.89) P00_99 0.8 0.8 (0.72, 0.92) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.72 0.8 (0.67, 0.94)
09_4_42 0.7 (0.59, 0.84) cj20_J22 1 0.76 (0.66, 0.97) ach_noj 0.76 0.81 (0.68, 0.93) E00_99 0.35 0.78 (0.68, 0.89)
09_4_43 0.83 (0.75, 0.93) cj20_J22 1 0.83 (0.74, 0.97) E00_99 0.96 0.9 (0.78, 1.01) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.17 0.92 (0.82, 1.02)
09_5_50 0.77 (0.68, 0.89) cj20_J22 1 0.78 (0.66, 0.93) P00_99 0.86 0.9 (0.76, 1.04) P05_07 0.24 0.9 (0.75, 1.04)
09_5_51 0.72 (0.61, 0.8) cj20_J22 1 0.67 (0.57, 0.76) K00_99 0.73 0.65 (0.55, 0.77) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.28 0.65 (0.56, 0.78)
09_5_52 0.58 (0.5, 0.68) cj20_J22 1 0.78 (0.57, 0.95) ach_noj 0.9 0.79 (0.56, 1.01) K00_99 0.12 0.78 (0.59, 0.95)
09_5_53 0.44 (0.37, 0.58) cj20_J22 1 0.59 (0.44, 0.86) a10_b99_nopneumo 0.65 0.62 (0.48, 0.9) A41 0.19 0.61 (0.48, 1)
09_1_AA 0.9 (0.78, 1.01) cj20_J22 1 0.86 (0.77, 0.96) P00_99 0.81 0.85 (0.78, 0.92) N39 0.31 0.85 (0.77, 0.94)
09_2_AA 0.58 (0.53, 0.63) A41 1 0.65 (0.57, 0.73) cj20_J22 1 0.71 (0.65, 0.79) K00_99 0.1 0.72 (0.65, 0.78)
09_3_AA 0.78 (0.71, 0.91) cj20_J22 1 0.8 (0.62, 0.96) E00_99 0.93 0.86 (0.76, 1.03) E40_46 0.64 0.8 (0.58, 0.99)
09_4_AA 0.76 (0.68, 0.85) cj20_J22 1 0.82 (0.73, 0.92) E00_99 1 0.82 (0.73, 0.97) I00_99 0.05 0.81 (0.74, 0.88)
09_5_AA 0.67 (0.55, 0.77) cj20_J22 1 0.79 (0.58, 0.95) K00_99 0.74 0.76 (0.45, 0.94) ach_noj 0.27 0.77 (0.57, 0.96)
09_A_AA 0.75 (0.71, 0.8) E40_46 1 0.78 (0.72, 0.91) cj20_J22 1 0.79 (0.69, 0.93) I00_99 0.06 0.77 (0.69, 0.87)

Plots

09_1_11

09_1_12

09_1_13

09_1_14

09_1_15

09_1_16

09_1_17

09_2_21

09_2_22

09_2_23

09_2_24

09_2_25

09_2_26

09_2_27

09_2_28

09_2_29

09_3_31

09_3_32

09_3_33

09_3_35

09_4_41

09_4_42

09_4_43

09_5_50

09_5_51

09_5_52

09_5_53

09_1_AA

09_2_AA

09_3_AA

09_4_AA

09_5_AA

09_A_AA